Wednesday, June 18, 2003

Was it worth it? It's too early to say that the issue of the missing WMD will hurt Bush politically. But recent polls are turning up good evidence that the public is starting to entertain real doubts about whether the Iraq war was truly worth the investment of blood and money we had to make.

Moreover, if you look at swing-voting independents, doubts about the worthwhileness of the Iraq war are even stronger: 43 percent of this group said that the Iraq war was a success and worth the cost, compared to 55 percent who said either that its success was not worth the cost, or that it was not a success. The data also show a wide gender gap on this issue. While 57 percent of men said that the Iraq war was a success and worth the cost, just 40 percent of women felt this way (55 percent of women thought that either the war's success wasn't worth the cost, or that the war wasn't a success).

The CBS News poll has other findings consistent with these doubts. While 53 percent of adults in this poll say that Iraq was a threat that required immediate action, 45 percent now say that Iraq was either a threat that could have been contained (35 percent) or was not a threat at all (10 percent). The poll also finds that locating the WMD does matter to most Americans (58 percent) and that the belief that the administration overestimated the number of WMD in Iraq is growing (now 44 percent, up 5 points from two weeks ago).

The Gallup poll confirms that Americans are becoming more skeptical about Iraqi WMD. Currently, 44 percent say that they are certain Iraq had facilities to create WMD before the war, down 11 points from what the public believed before the war. Similarly, 43 percent say that they are certain Iraq had biological or chemical weapons before the war, down 13 points from prewar views, and 37 percent are certain that Iraq was trying to develop nuclear weapons before the war, down 11 points from prewar beliefs.

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